AbbVie Has More Room for Appreciation
Shares of AbbVie pharmaceuticals hit an all-time record this week. This nearly $400 billion capitalized stock closed at $220.22 on September 11, up 4% from the previous day's performance, with an intraday high being at $221.76. The rise of the pharma sector is not as impressive as for so many cases in AI industry. On average, this process could be called rather restorative, even for big pharma stocks, but Abbvie as a real giant of the sector is a pleasant exception, having added about 30% from April's local lows corresponding to the tariff storm. And it has room for additional appreciation by market crowds and experts in the nearest 6 weeks before its scheduled quarterly earnings call on October 24.
Historically, Humira prescription drug to reduce the signs and symptoms of moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis has been the crown jewel of AbbVie's commercial success, with its annual revenue reaching extraordinary heights around $20 billion globally. This was once Abbvie's best-selling drug, now battling severe competition from cheaper biosimilars produced by rivals since 2023. It has been reported in the mid-week, however, that no generic competition for Abbvie's currently blockbuster immunology drug Rinvoq used for similar diseases could be seen until 2037 at least. Again, the settlement with largest generic makers, which is subject to certain provisions in the U.S., is going to prevent sales erosion of Rinvoq within this 12-year timeframe, marking a 4-year extension compared to previous public estimates. Chris Schott at JP Morgan & Chase said the extension for its Rinvoq franchise gives AbbVie "years of runway on one of its key growth drivers" develop and test more now-experimental drugs ahead of any potential loss of exclusivity in the mid-2030s.
Humira is a biologic that blocks the so-called TNF (tumor necrosis factor), while Rinvoq scientifically is a JAK (Janus kinase) inhibitor that works inside cells to block signals causing inflammation. They also differ in how they are administered as Humira is an injection, whereas Rinvoq is a daily oral tablet. Rinvoq is also being tested for diseases such as alopecia areata, vitiligo, hidradenitis suppurativa and systemic lupus erythematosus. Rinvoq's annual sales for 2024 were $5.97 billion, a 46% increase from the prior year, while its Q2 2025 sales already reached $2.028 billion, another 41.8% of remarkable surplus YoY, accounting for more than 10% of total Abbvie sales. The figures contribute much to AbbVie's overall sales, with the combined sales of $15.42 billion in Q2 2025, with Rinvoq and Skyrizi projected to exceed $31 billion together by as early as 2027. Skyrizi is a brand name for a biologic injection to treat plaque psoriasis, its net sales reached $11.7 billion in 2024, a more than 50% increase vs 2023, and generated $4.4 billion only in the previous quarter to marking a 62% increase on an annual basis QoQ.
For us, the "fair value" of Abbvie could be estimated within the range of between $235 and $250 per share. We will wait and see when the opinion of the market crowd joins these reasonable estimates. This may happen before the end of this year or later in the spring of 2026, depending on investors' immediate response to the quarterly report in late October.
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